Opinion: Prognosis of the 2019 Presidential Election and beyond

I’m neither a prophet, nor a soothsayer, but I dare to say that 2019 Presidential election is almost predictable. Politics is undoubtedly fluid, as political interests which drives political actions are transitory, especially in Nigeria where political parties are, but mere vehicles to power, hence politicians align and re-align for political ambition, which are more often than not, self-serving.  The rhetoric of self-less public service, is a ruse, to deceive the gullible. Little wonder in politics what you see or hear is not what you get.

In a sane society, an election is a formal group decision-making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold public office. Elections have been the usual mechanism by which modern representative democracy has operated since the 17th century. Unfortunately, election time in Africa is war time. It’s not the usual carnival-like events, in celebration of democracy, as is evident in other clime. In Africa, and in Nigeria in particular, election is a do or die. And there are growing concerns the 2019 electoral process will see new violence. Nigeria has never been so divided, along, political party, religious and ethnic lines. And the present government contributed in no small measure to the deepening of this deep hatred, and hate comments. This is a fact, and consequently, politics has become madness in Nigeria. 

Thanks to the National Peace Accord Agreement, recently signed by major contenders to the February 16, 2019 presidential polls, including the incumbent, Mohammadu Buhari and the major opposition candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubarka. The National Peace Accord Agreement, being spear-headed by the National Peace committee chaired by former head of state, Abdulsalami Abubarka, with other prominent Nigerians as members; will help ensure some sanity in the election process as we count down to February 2019 general elections. Although this agreement is non-binding and will depend on whether the 2019 elections are free and of course fair.

This under-scores the enormous task before the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC). The INEC must build on the success of its historic 2015 elections. The 2019 polls must be nothing less than credible, fair and transparent. The election umpire must not be seen to favor any candidate over the other, therefore fairness and justice is key. This is so because despite the National Peace Accord Agreement signed, if the INEC is seen to favor any candidate over the other, then violent protests and possibly bloodshed will be least of our national tragedy.

To win election in Nigeria, especially the presidential election, alliances must be formed across ethnic lines. It was such alliance that brought the present, Gen Mohammadu Buhari to power in 2015, after 3 failed attempts, defeating an incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan. When the CPC, that controls the north-west and parts of North-East, MERGED with the ACN that firmly controls the South-West, and other break-away factions from other parties to form the All Progressives Congress, APC. It was historic and goes along to buttress the fact that alliances across regional lines is vital to win any presidential election in Nigeria. Nigeria has 6 main geo-political zones: North-East, North-West, North-Central (Middle-belt), South-West, South-East, South-South; and the would-be winner of the 2019 presidential elections must win at least 4 out of the 6 zones. Hence, presidential candidate must appeal beyond his geo-political enclave; very important.

Thus, in 2015, the country saw the North-West, North-East, and parts of North-central, teaming up with the South-West to depose an incumbent. If this trend repeats itself in 2019, then, there’s no gainsaying that President Mohammadu Buhari will be re-elected, and the north as a whole, especially politician of the APC extraction would owe the south-west their support come 2023. Hence, power will go back to South-West come 2023, nowhere else. And the south-East would be short-changed in the scheme of things in Nigeria. Already, the South-East is being arm-twisted to support President Mohammadu Buhari’s re-election as guarantee for a South-East presidency. But all that is a ruse. The South-East will be so naïve to fall for such political chicanery. It will be the height of hallucination to think that the ruling APC, will just hand over power come 2023 to a candidate of south-East extraction.

The Czar of Lagos politics, and indeed, the entire South-West, and national leader of the APC, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has presidential ambition. He has no doubt conquered south-west politics, putting his stooges, in place, in preparation to take his short at the presidency, no doubt. And the grand plan is already perfected by political calculations, for the North to return favor by supporting a South-west presidency come 2023. This is a fact. A grand agreement within the ACN and CPC extractions of the APC. The south-west support of the re-election of Mohammadu Buhari is not based on any performance. Standards and good-governance are being compromised for political ambition. Hence, despite the failures of the present administration, the south-west will still support it, just as to guarantee a similar support for its slot at the presidency. This information is an open secret.

The South-East may remain in political oblivion for as long as is possible. A lot of factors are, and will be responsible for this. First the APC, would want to punish the region, including the South-South for its continued support for the PDP, the main opposition and for the fact this region has remained the base of anti-Buhari rhetoric. Secondly, the fear of the Biafra secessionist movement, IPOB. There may be concerns that a South-East presidency may be sympathetic to the IPOB struggle and give in to their yearnings for a referendum.

Hence, the closest shot at the presidency for the south-East is the Atiku-Obi presidency. But the Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, will most likely loose the 2019 elections to the incumbent, Mohammadu Buhari. This is my forecast. The PDP’s Atiku/Obi ticket may lose the polls, not necessarily, because the present administration is high on performance, but largely based on the points enumerated above and some others.

Moreso, the Presidency has demonstrated desperation to stay put to power. Despite his promise to ensuring a free and fair elections, the incumbent President Mohammadu Buhari’s handlers may have other plans.  The president, himself, may seem honest and calm, but there are individuals who willingly pulls the levers of power on his behalf. And such individuals are very powerful in the administration, and will leave no stone unturned to see that president Mohammadu Buhari is re-elected. Aside the South-west APC, there is also a cabal calling the shots, and who may have been behind the refusal of the presidency to sign the electoral reform bill. Though reasons were advanced, albeit flimsy, for the non-signing into law of the electoral reform bill.

The continued meddling by the Nigerian Police Force, NPF is also a cause for concern. The presidency must sincerely call the Police IG, Abubakar Idris to order, if the president, Mohammadu Buhari, in all honesty intents to ensure a free and fair elections.

The opposition politicians have also accused the vice President, Prof Yemi Osibanjo of vote buying, in the guise of the TraderMoni scheme. It’s too close to the elections and according to critics, the VP’s country-wide tour, sharing N10, 000 in markets is questionable. It has a lot of political under-pinning, and shows desperation on the part of the government of the day to buy over voters with public funds.

No doubt, the 2019 presidential election is a two horse race. It’s between the incumbent, Mohammadu Buhari of the APC and the People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP) Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. Though there are other contenders, like the Former Education minister, Oby Ezekwesili, and former CBN deputy governor, Kingsley Moghalu, the list is long. But only the APC, and the PDP, has the national spread, the financial muscles, and grass-root structures to muscle for power. In Nigeria electioneering campaign is expensive. It’s expensive and requires human capital. Thus, its only candidates with deep pocket that can run the race. And media attention, and space is key.

In the run up to the February 16, 2019 elections, there are hot-spots and swing states that must be watched closely. There are states prone to violence, and could swing either way; that includes, not only, Rivers state and since recently Akwa Ibom state. Security agencies must pay closer attention to this spots, and must be also seen to be fair and not bringing to bear the idea of federal might, to subjugate the opponent. Any attempt at this may result to violence and bloodshed.

North-East: The biggest beneficiary of the Mohammadu Buhari administration. This region got most of the appointments, juicy appointments in this administration, and may still vote APC, to re-elect the incumbent president. Except for Gombe and perhaps, Adamawa, the APC, will win massively in North-East.

North-West: APC will win North-West. It’s the president’s political support base. Except for Sokoto, the APC is projected to win this region. But a lot may have changed since the last elections, and President Mohammadu Buhari may not get huge votes he got from Kano, in the 2015 presidential elections. A lot has changed, except there will still be massive rigging, and under-age voting. The situation is still fluid, though.

North-central: This region will be another decider for the elections. The votes will be split between the major parties. But PDP is predicted to win this region for reasons not unconnected to the herders-farmers clashes that have ravaged the region and left many deaths. Worst still is the delay and poor handling of the mayhem by the federal government and the security agencies; which resulted in may conspiracy theories.

South-East: PDP will win most of south-east. There remains deep hatred for the president, Mohammad Buhari in the south-east. This is street knowledge. Do not let political jobbers deceive you. No matter what the president does, his major political haters will come from south-easterners. He can build a second and a third Niger Bridge, the negative perception about him, amongst many south-easterners will not change.

South-West: Mohammadu Buhari’s re-election is the survival and continued relevance of the region in national politics. The South-West extraction of the APC knows this, especially since the main opposition PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, choose his VP, from outside the region. Hence, South-West may be a decider in the presidential elections. And will most likely go for APC.

South-South: Rivers state and recently Akwa Ibom are hotspots for violence. The Peace committee must work on these two states, to urge the major political actors to tone down not only on their inciting statements, but to call their supporters to order. Except these two states, South-South is for PDP.

In conclusion, there are feelers that the APC-led presidency may try to rig out certain politicians, it considers inimical to its progress, and would want to teach them a lesson. APC may want to out-rightly rig elections in states like Kwara state, for obvious reasons. Both for the presidential, governorship and senatorial seats, just to punish and humiliate politicians like, Dr. Bukola Saraki. There are other opposition politicians that will be targeted, and rigged out, out-rightly. This is just my opinion.

Nigeria's future is at stake. And the choices before Nigerians are very clear. This prediction is not cast in iron, the elections can swing either way. The choice is for the Nigerian electorates to make. We must vote, not fight, and must resist any form of rigging, and make our votes to count.

It’s important to reiterate that INEC must build on the successes of the 2015 general elections. It must ensure that the 2019 presidential elections is fair, transparent and conclusive. Political mandates ought to be given through the ballot boxes, not by election tribunals/courts.

By Ugochukwu Ejugbo